EVENT PLOT
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CONFIDENCE
CONFIRMED
PROBABLE
POSSIBLE
TYPE
STRIKE
INTERCEPT
<24 H (PULSE)
CONFIRMEDMunition class identified through an official release (e.g., CENTCOM, Navy, or DoD statement) or physically verifiable evidence such as recovered debris or fragments.
● STRIKEOffensive employment of a US-origin munition against a surface target (land or maritime). Plotted as a circle.
PROBABLEStrong open-source evidence — geolocated video, fragment analysis, or curated conflict datasets — but no official confirmation of the munition class.
◆ INTERCEPTDefensive engagement: a US-origin interceptor fired at an incoming threat (missile or drone). Plotted as a diamond and included in the cost-exchange panel with target type and cost estimate.
POSSIBLESingle-source or unverified reporting (local media, crowdsourced maps); munition class inferred from context. Treat as indicative only.
▲ USN GROUPApproximate weekly operating area of a carrier strike group or amphibious ready group flagship, from the USNI News Fleet & Marine Tracker. Warships do not broadcast their positions — this is editorial OSINT, not real-time tracking.
Confidence reflects source tier, not certainty. An event may be upgraded or downgraded as additional sourcing emerges.
TIMELINE
EVENT FEED
ATTRIBUTION ROLLUP
EXPENDITURE ESTIMATE PUBLISHED UNIT-COST ESTIMATES · FY BUDGET DOCS
COST-EXCHANGE RATIO · INTERCEPTS INTERCEPTOR COST ÷ TARGET COST · TARGET VALUES ARE ROUGH OSINT ESTIMATES